This year’s NBA MVP race has been pretty open all year.
A number of guys have been the favorite at one point or another; Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are at the top of most peoples’ lists here in the middle of April. I think it’s fair to say someone like Jalen Brunson deserves to be in the conversation, as well.
Here’s why these guys make up the clear-cut top MVP candidates for the 2023-2024 season.
Nikola Jokic
Jokic has been a hot topic at Beyond The Arc over the past few months. He’s a personal favorite player of mine, but how can he not be?
He’s unbelievable on and off the court. His efficiency and impact has been in never-before-seen territory for years while he’s living the most respectable nonchalant lifestyle among every NBA star, possibly ever.
Jokic has lead the NBA in Win Shares, Win Shares per 48, and Offensive Win Shares every single season over the past four. Win shares are the sum of Offensive Win Shares and Defensive Win Shares: two stats that base their calculations on offensive and defensive contributions.
Combining these numbers with his league-leading Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 31.1 and his base statistics of 26.5 PPG, 12.3 RPG and 9.0 APG on 65 percent TS%, he’s certainly deserving of taking home his third MVP trophy.
Denver will also be a top-three seed in the Western Conference after tonight’s final slate of NBA games.
In a previous post, I made a point to discuss Jokic’s on-off point differential this season.
Don’t get me wrong, the Nuggets are a great team, but without Jokic they’d likely be putrid. His league-leading 19.7 On-Off differential is an entire stratosphere above the next guy, who’s actually Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Caldwell-Pope is a great 3 and D player but he’s likely riding on Jokic’s coattails to appear on the list.
If I had to bet a million dollars on the MVP this year, I’d put it on Jokic without thinking twice.
Luka Doncic
At his current trajectory, Doncic will be an easy Hall-of-Famer and will pick up some hardware on the way.
I mean, how can you average 33.9 PPG, 9.2 RPG and 9.8 APG while winning 50+ games without taking home the MVP?
I guess we’ll find out.
Doncic will take home the scoring title with ease this season as he’s had a high-volume season comparable to Russell Westbrook’s in the 2016-2017 season.
Westbrook took home MVP that season, but he and Doncic have major stylistic differences in their games, so the comparison is far-fetched when watching but understandable, statistically.
Doncic is a show-stopper in the sense that he has to be so calculated with how he paces himself. He cannot be slowed down or sped up.
This is also the best Mavs team we’ve seen in the Luka Doncic era. They’re sneaky championship contenders.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SGA, averaging 30.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG and 6.2 APG has led the young Oklahoma City Thunder to a top three seed in the West.
In my opinion, the biggest difference between SGA and Jokic or Doncic is that his supporting cast is a little more independent and a little more talented than the two Euro stars’.
It’s not fair to fault SGA for having a great team around him, especially because he’s far-and-away the best and most impactful player on the team.
SGA is averaging career-highs in almost every advanced statistical category, including TS%, WS and PER.
Obviously, he’s among the most popular players in the league. He’s one of the first players that NBA Twitter circles tagged as having “aura”, which has turned into one of the most fun terms used to describe players over the past year.
Jalen Brunson
Without Jalen Brunson, the Knicks aren’t a playoff team. They’d likely be in contention for the No. 1 pick in this years’ draft.
I’m a Knicks fan, so I’ve had the pleasure of watching Brunson carry this team on a night-to-night basis. The national attention that comes with the postseason will expose this to casual NBA fans, bringing more heat to his name around MVP conversations.
With 28.6 PPG and 6.7 APG on 48 percent from the field and 40 percent from three, Brunson having an off game is as rare as a complete solar eclipse.
In fact, something that sets him apart from his competitors is the fact that he averages 28.6 PPG in both wins and losses. He’s Mr. Consistent, and that’s why he’s a Tom Thibodeau favorite.
The man is the King of New York right now and deserves some more publicity around NBA circles for what he’s brought to the game over the past two years.
He’s done a better job of building his brand recently, starting a podcast with fellow teammate and former roommate, Josh Hart. He’s also claimed the nickname, The Brunson Burner, which has definitely has some potential.
Wrap-up
The politics surrounding the MVP Award have become more important than actually on-court performance for a while now.
Voters’ fatigue and bias are both very real.
Some of the media members that actually vote for MVP should not be qualified to have a say in who gets the most prestigious individual award in the league, but that’s neither here nor there.
I’m excited to revisit this conversation during the playoffs in May.
-Dom